Moritz Kraemer helps to predict past and future spread of mosquito-borne diseases

A research team led by Branco Weiss Fellow Moritz Kraemer has created the most accurate global distribution maps to enable targeted interventions to reduce the burden of mosquito-borne diseases. The reach of diseases like yellow fever, Zika and dengue is expanding with changes in the distribution of two key mosquitoes: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The spread of these species is largely driven by a combination of factors: human movements and climate change.

Dr Moritz Kramer and his team have used statistical mapping techniques to predict where the species will spread over an immediate, medium and long-term time-scale – with the precision of 5×5 km. To this aim, the researchers used 35 years of historic data, together with 17 of the highest-regarded and accepted climate change models to create a tool for public health officials which will allow them to target resource most efficiently and effectively to combat disease outbreak.

The paper titled “Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus’ was published recently in Nature Microbiology.

Read the paper in Nature Microbiology

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