Dominic D.P. Johnson

• Professor, University of Oxford, UK, 2012-present
  Alastair Buchan Chair of International Relations, University of Oxford, UK
• Co-Director, Oxford Martin School “Natural Governance” Programme
• Professor, University of Edinburgh, 2007-2012
• Lecturer, Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, 2004–2007
• Fellow, Society of Fellows, Princeton University, 2004–2007
• Visiting Fellow, Global Fellows Program, International Institute, University of California, Los Angeles 2004–2006
• Science Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University 2003–2004
• National Security Fellow, Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University, 2002–2003
• Visiting Fellow, Harvard University as a J.F. Kennedy Scholar, 2000-2001
• PhD (political science), University of Geneva, 2001-2004
• DPhil (biology), University of Oxford, 1997-2000
• MSc (biological sciences), University of Oxford, 1996-1997
• BA (Statistics and German), Open University, 1998-2001
• Research Assistant on biodiversity projects in Tanzania, Uganda, Russia and Australia, 1993-1996

Dominic Johnson’s research examined how societies and political leaders seek and interpret victory and defeat in international relations, and how these interpretations shape political outcomes and democratic processes. Rather than focusing solely on material results, his work highlights the role of psychological biases, prior beliefs, and narrative framing in determining whether international crises are remembered as successes or failures.

A central output of this research was the book “Failing to Win: Victory and Defeat in International Relations,” with Prof. Dominic Tierney. Using the Cuban Missile Crisis as a key case study, the project showed how the perception of an unequivocal U.S. victory was consolidated less by objective outcomes than by expectations, framing, and the management of public opinion. The analysis was extended through comparative case studies, including the Tet Offensive, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and the “War on Terror”, offering a broader framework for understanding how political victories and defeats are socially constructed.

This research bridges political science, psychology, and biology, reflecting a growing recognition that insights into human decision-making and cognitive bias are essential for understanding political behavior. By examining how leaders, media, and the public process information in times of crisis, Dominic Johnson’s work sheds light on vulnerabilities in democratic systems and the societal consequences of distorted perceptions of success and failure, with continuing importance today.

Dominic Johnson is interested in how new research on evolution, biology and human nature is challenging theories of international relations, conflict, and cooperation. His new book, Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 2020), challenges the common view that human cognitive biases are unfortunate errors or mistakes that lead inevitably to policy failures, disasters, and wars. Rather, it argues they are adaptive heuristics that evolved because they helped us make good decisions, not bad ones. Under the right conditions, these “strategic instincts” continue to lend a competitive edge in international relations. His previous books are: God is Watching You: How the Fear of God Makes Us Human (Oxford University Press, 2015), which examines the role of religion in the evolution of cooperation, and how cross-culturally ubiquitous and ancient beliefs in supernatural punishment have helped to overcome major challenges of human society; Failing to Win: Perceptions of Victory and Defeat in International Politics (Harvard University Press, 2006), with Dominic Tierney, examines how and why popular misperceptions commonly create undeserved victories or defeats in international wars and crises; and Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions (Harvard University Press, 2004), which argues that common psychological biases to maintain overly positive images of our capabilities, our control over events, and the future, play a key role in the causes of war. His current work focuses on the role of evolutionary dynamics, evolutionary psychology, and religion in human conflict and cooperation. Dominic is also Co-Director of the Oxford Martin School Natural Governance Programme.

• Challenged (in his latest book, “Strategic Instincts”, Princeton University Press 2022) the common view that human cognitive biases are unfortunate errors or mistakes that lead inevitably to policy failures, disasters, and wars. Rather, Johnson argues, they are adaptive heuristics that evolved because they helped us make good decisions, not bad ones.
• Examined (in “God is Watching You”, Oxford University Press 2016) the role of religion in the evolution of cooperation, and how cross-culturally ubiquitous and ancient beliefs in supernatural punishment have helped to overcome major challenges of human society.
• Explored (with Dominic Tierney in “Failing to Win”, Harvard University Press, 2006) how common psychological biases generate powerful misconceptions about the success and failure of political events, altering the lessons that people learn from history.
• Argued (in “Overconfidence and War”, Harvard University Press, 2004) that the widespread human tendency to maintain overly positive images of ourselves, of our control over events, and of the future (so-called “positive illusions”), play a key role in the causes of war.

• Rajaratnam Professor in Strategic Studies, School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, 2023
• Fellow of the International Society for Science and Religion (ISSR), 2023
• Chancellor’s “Rising Star” Award, University of Edinburgh, 2011
• Best Book (“Failing to Win”) in International Studies, International Studies Association, 2008
• Honor Book (“Overconfidence and War”), New Jersey Council for the Humanities, 2005
• Best PhD during 2002–04, Geneva University, Swiss Political Science Association, 2004

Ferenc Jordán
Giovanni Frazzetto